Alain Closier
Jul 1, 2025
Q: When China Truly Strikes Back at Donald Trump’s Trade War, Could the World Be Shaken?
Monthly Commentary
Q&A with Alain Closier
Alain Closier,
Senior Advisor
Paris, France, Europe
Question:
When China Truly Strikes Back at Donald Trump’s Trade War, Could the World Be Shaken?
Answer:
On April 2, Donald Trump effectively launched a global trade war — with China as the primary target. Just one week later, on April 9, he unexpectedly announced a 90-day suspension of most measures, though he kept heavy pressure on Beijing, maintaining tariffs at an elevated 80%. Then, following what were described as “positive” negotiations on May 10, both countries agreed to a mutual reduction of tariffs to 30%.
Is this the end of the crisis — or merely the eye of a coming storm?
Despite these developments, financial markets have remained surprisingly calm. But writing about the future — especially the economic future — is notoriously difficult.
In 1973, Alain Peyrefitte’s book When China Wakes, the World Will Tremble caused a sensation in France and across Europe. Western fears about China were already simmering, and his prophetic analysis captivated readers. Still, it took more than thirty years for China’s economic rise to truly accelerate. As late as 1995, even top analysts believed China’s lack of democracy and underdeveloped infrastructure would prevent it from becoming a global power.
They could not have been more wrong.
What about today?
Once again, prediction is fraught with uncertainty. Facing a mounting set of global challenges, it’s entirely possible that the U.S. administration could reverse course on its recent decisions. One thing is nearly certain, however: the trade tensions — exacerbated by President Trump’s unpredictable policy shifts — are sowing deep uncertainty. Confidence is waning not only in financial markets but also among global economic stakeholders. This undermines growth prospects worldwide.
China’s strengths — and potential countermeasures
Faced with American commercial aggression, China has many options at its disposal — and they could have far-reaching consequences:
Targeted tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, particularly those from pro-Trump rural states, would deal a political and economic blow.
Restrictions on major U.S. corporations operating in China, especially tech giants, could strain corporate profits and stock valuations.
Currency and market pressures, including a devaluation of the yuan or large-scale sales of U.S. Treasury bonds, could rattle global financial markets.
Export bans on strategic resources, like rare earth elements vital to American industry, could disrupt critical supply chains.
Although a trade war would also hurt China, it may be better positioned to endure the fallout:
China can absorb the pain over a longer period — unburdened by elections or vocal public dissent.
It may even leverage the crisis:
Reduced U.S. exports could drive the expansion of its vast domestic market.
It could accelerate the “New Silk Road” initiative, strengthening trade ties with Asia, Africa, and Europe.
The urgency of the situation might spur rapid technological self-sufficiency, reducing reliance on American suppliers.
Conclusion:
In this trade war initiated by the United States, the global economy is the real casualty. Everyone loses — through weaker growth, higher inflation, and fewer jobs. But if China chooses to retaliate more forcefully, it has powerful tools at its disposal. These measures could seriously damage the U.S. economy — but they also risk causing collateral damage across Europe and Asia, shaking the global economic order as we know it.
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Alain Closier, Senior Advisor
Paris, France, Europe
Alain Closier is a former member of the General Management Committee of the Société Générale group. With more than 35 years of experience in international banking and finance, he is, and has always been, passionate about creating innovative activities.
Alain Closier is a graduate of the National School of Statistics and Economic Administration (ENSAE) and holds a post-graduate degree in Economics from Panthéon-Sorbonne University, in Paris. He began his career as an economist, before joining the International Treasury department of Société Générale.
In the 90s, Alain was responsible for the international development of FIMAT. Originally only a French brokerage company, FIMAT has become in just a few years an international leader specializing in brokerage on derivative stock markets with a presence in more than 25 countries.
Alain Closier was also the creator of FIMATEX, a precursor of online brokers. In 2000, FIMATEX was one of the largest IPOs in Paris in the internet sector. After several mergers and acquisitions, FIMATEX became Boursorama, today one of the French leaders in online banking.
Alain Closier's work has been rewarded on several occasions by international financial institutions. As Director of Société Générale Securities Services (SGSS), he was elected “European Personality of the Year in Asset Servicing” in 2010 by Funds Europe magazine. Its teams were recognized both for their expertise in emerging markets and for their presence on a European scale.
Overseeing the development of the bank's venture capital activities in Silicon Valley during the 2000s, Alain Closier acquired in-depth knowledge of the problems encountered by start-ups, both in the United States and in Europe.
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